Almost every month one of the several flying magazines shows up with an article about yet another VFR only pilot flying into marginal weather. In the past I would read an article and think that one would have to be incredibly stupid, arrogant or overconfident in order to intentionally fly into IMC. I do not think so anymore as I almost done exact same thing this past fall.
I had a flight booked at 10am. Wx looked marginal, so I spend couple hours looking at forecasts and finally decided to drive to the airport and see what the conditions were there. Surprisingly, the actual Wx seemed better than METARs. There was almost no wind, so I knew I could go up and practice circuits. My instructor came back from his previous flight and said that the ceilings were around 2,200 AGL but the vis was worse the higher one went.
Hearing about ceilings higher than I expected I came up with what seemed to be a brilliant idea of flying to Simcoe Regional to practice on their long strip. I needed to work on details of landing roll out and take off and it was hard to do at our short little strip. Plus, I thought that change of perspective (from shorter narrow up sloping Rwy to straight, wide and long Rwy at Simcoe) would be good practice. My instructor called CNB9’s automated Wx report and it reported good VFR with ceilings at 2,500 ft and no wind. I then took off and headed to Simcoe Regional.
As I was headed north, I climbed to 2,000 and the vis was still acceptable, so I kept going. It was a cold fall day and the lake was still warm, so there was a fog over the lake (and I had to cross the large bay towards the airport). I could still see the other side of the bay, so over I went. Found airport with no issues and discovered 3 other airplanes in the circuit there. With the thin mist drifting in and out from the lake, the vis was not great and I had to really concentrate to see the planes in the circuit. That was the first clue – I should have turned around and gone home right there, but such is a human nature that I did not want to feel that I have flown all that way for nothing, so I decided to at least do one circuit.
With the wider and longer Rwy, my landing was not pretty, so I decided to try one more and then one more. As I was flying in the circuit, I concentrated on my landings and keeping track of the plane that was doing touch and goes ahead of me. On circuit #5, the Tower turned the Rwy lights on. That should have been clue #2, however, the changes in light (it became very dark) and viz (it became marginal VFR) crept so slowly that I “acclimatized” and was not conscious of them.
It was only when one of the planes in the area asked for conditions report and no one replied that I decided to speak up. And it was only when I heard myself say “visibility 2-3 miles” that I finally got the jolt and asked myself what on earth was I doing flying the circuit with 4 other planes in marginal VFR. I should have probably landed there and waited for the mist to drift off, however, I made the decision to go home as conditions seemed to be better in the south.
As I headed across the bay, the vis deteriorated so much, I could not see the other side and had to follow the compass. Luckily, as I crossed, the vis improved. It was misty and hazy with no defined horizon, but I could see enough to know where I was. I followed the shoreline of the lake south and then flew over one of the rivers that passed right by my landing strip. By the time I made my calls approaching out zone, the vis improved again but I was in no mood to try some circuits at the home base, so I landed.
As I was securing the plane, I was going over the flight and realizing that I was lucky that the weather did turn better in the south. I also realized how most untrained people fly into IMC – it is not a sharp transition from clear blue skies and into the soup. No, they do it the way I almost done it – bit by bit, talking themselves into believing the Wx is going to improve imminently with IMC creeping up on them until they suddenly realize that Wx is not getting better AND they are now flying on instruments.
So, I now have a better appreciation for “flying into IMC” stories. I am also trying to make the situational awareness a regular check to make sure that bad Wx would never creep up on me ever again. And, as per previous post, I will set some personal limits.
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